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Dandenong City vs Oakleigh Cannons — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong City
Dandenong City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
3/31/2021Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 6Frank Holohan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dandenong City27%
×Draw22%
Oakleigh Cannons50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong City
1.35
Oakleigh Cannons
1.91

Oakleigh Cannons creates 41% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 87 away

creates per match

Dandenong City
1.58
Oakleigh Cannons
1.85

allows per match

Dandenong City
1.97
Oakleigh Cannons
1.11

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par
Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

Oakleigh Cannons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw
50%
Dandenong City or Oakleigh Cannons
78%
Draw or Oakleigh Cannons
73%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+
12%
Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals
74%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
39%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
15%
Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
85%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
57%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)
35%
Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.97 · 76 matches

Oakleigh Cannons away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 1.58 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.85 + Dandenong City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dandenong City scores more
27%
level
22%
Oakleigh Cannons scores more
50%

Oakleigh Cannons at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Dandenong City 1–2 Oakleigh Cannons

Oakleigh Cannons beat Dandenong City 2-1 in Victoria NPL on March 31, 2021.

The match was played at Frank Holohan Reserve in Endeavour Hills.