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Dandenong City vs Heidelberg United — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong City
Dandenong City
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Heidelberg United
Heidelberg United
4/23/2022Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 10Frank Holohan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dandenong City31%
×Draw23%
Heidelberg United46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong City
1.47
Heidelberg United
1.82

Heidelberg United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 88 away

creates per match

Dandenong City
1.58
Heidelberg United
1.68

allows per match

Dandenong City
1.97
Heidelberg United
1.36

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par
Heidelberg United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

Heidelberg United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw
54%
Dandenong City or Heidelberg United
77%
Draw or Heidelberg United
69%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+
14%
Heidelberg United wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals
77%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
43%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
18%
Heidelberg United 1+ goals
84%
Heidelberg United 2+ goals
54%
Heidelberg United 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)
41%
Heidelberg United (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.97 · 76 matches

Heidelberg United away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.36 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 1.58 + Heidelberg United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Heidelberg United attack 1.68 + Dandenong City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dandenong City scores more
31%
level
23%
Heidelberg United scores more
46%

Heidelberg United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandenong City vs Heidelberg United

Heidelberg United beat Dandenong City 6-0 in Victoria NPL on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Frank Holohan Reserve in Endeavour Hills.