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Dandenong City vs Dandenong Thunder — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong City
Dandenong City
FT
3 – 4
Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder
3/29/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 7FrankHolohan Soccer Centre (Endeavour Hills)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dandenong City39%
×Draw23%
Dandenong Thunder39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong City
1.71
Dandenong Thunder
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 87 away

creates per match

Dandenong City
1.58
Dandenong Thunder
1.44

allows per match

Dandenong City
1.97
Dandenong Thunder
1.83

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par
Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

Dandenong Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw
61%
Dandenong City or Dandenong Thunder
77%
Draw or Dandenong Thunder
61%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+
20%
Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals
82%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
51%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
24%
Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals
82%
Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals
51%
Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)
50%
Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.97 · 76 matches

Dandenong Thunder away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 1.58 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.44 + Dandenong City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dandenong City scores more
39%
level
23%
Dandenong Thunder scores more
39%

Dandenong City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dandenong City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandenong City vs Dandenong Thunder

Dandenong Thunder beat Dandenong City 4-3 in Victoria NPL on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at FrankHolohan Soccer Centre (Endeavour Hills).