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Dalvík / Reynir vs KFG — 2. Deild 2026

Dalvík / Reynir
Dalvík / Reynir
FT
2 – 1
KFG
KFG
Unknown 85', 39'
Unknown 82'
7/19/20192. Deild2. Deild · Round 12Boginn (Akureyri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dalvík / Reynir56%
×Draw21%
KFG24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalvík / Reynir
2.12
KFG
1.32

Dalvík / Reynir creates 61% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 50 away

creates per match

Dalvík / Reynir
1.78
KFG
1.24

allows per match

Dalvík / Reynir
1.41
KFG
2.46

finishing

Dalvík / Reynir+0.00on par
KFG+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalvík / Reynir ↓

KFG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dalvík / Reynir or draw
76%
Dalvík / Reynir or KFG
79%
Draw or KFG
44%

Winning margin

Dalvík / Reynir wins by 2+
33%
KFG wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dalvík / Reynir 1+ goals
88%
Dalvík / Reynir 2+ goals
62%
Dalvík / Reynir 3+ goals
35%
KFG 1+ goals
73%
KFG 2+ goals
38%
KFG 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dalvík / Reynir (draw refunded)
70%
KFG (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalvík / Reynir at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 49 matches

KFG away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalvík / Reynir attack 1.78 + KFG defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.12

KFG attack 1.24 + Dalvík / Reynir defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dalvík / Reynir scores more
56%
level
21%
KFG scores more
24%

Dalvík / Reynir at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dalvík / Reynir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
82'
85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalvík / Reynir vs KFG

Dalvík / Reynir beat KFG 2-1 in 2. Deild on July 19, 2019.

Goals: ? (39', 82', 85').

The match was played at Boginn (Akureyri).