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Dalum vs Næsby — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Dalum
Dalum
FT
0 – 1
Næsby
Næsby
M. Aasgaard 80'
5/29/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Dalum Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dalum35%
×Draw24%
Næsby41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalum
1.48
Næsby
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dalum
1.05
Næsby
1.62

allows per match

Dalum
1.62
Næsby
1.92

finishing

Dalum+0.00on par
Næsby+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalum ↓

Næsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dalum or draw
59%
Dalum or Næsby
76%
Draw or Næsby
65%

Winning margin

Dalum wins by 2+
16%
Næsby wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dalum 1+ goals
77%
Dalum 2+ goals
43%
Dalum 3+ goals
19%
Næsby 1+ goals
80%
Næsby 2+ goals
48%
Næsby 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dalum (draw refunded)
46%
Næsby (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalum at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Næsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalum attack 1.05 + Næsby defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.48

Næsby attack 1.62 + Dalum defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dalum scores more
35%
level
24%
Næsby scores more
41%

Næsby at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
M. Aasgaard
82'
A. Molberg
82'
A. Molberg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalum vs Næsby

Næsby beat Dalum 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 29, 2021.

Goals: M. Aasgaard (80').

The match was played at Dalum Stadion in Odense.