Dalton Red Wolves 0–1 SC United Bantams

Dalton Red Wolves

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SC United Bantams

6/25/2019

USL League Two · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dalton Red Wolves34%

×Draw24%

SC United Bantams42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalton Red WolvesExpected goals in this matchSC United Bantams

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.63

Dalton Red Wolves

1.44

SC United Bantams

1.63

SC United Bantams creates 13% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 44 away

1.46

creates per match

1.80

1.46

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Dalton Red Wolves

1.46

SC United Bantams

1.80

allows per match

Dalton Red Wolves

1.46

SC United Bantams

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

SC United Bantams+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalton Red Wolves ↓

SC United Bantams →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dalton Red Wolves or draw

58%

Dalton Red Wolves or SC United Bantams

76%

Draw or SC United Bantams

66%

Winning margin

Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+

16%

SC United Bantams wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals

76%

Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals

42%

Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals

18%

SC United Bantams 1+ goals

80%

SC United Bantams 2+ goals

48%

SC United Bantams 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)

45%

SC United Bantams (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalton Red Wolves at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

SC United Bantams away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.46 + SC United Bantams defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

SC United Bantams attack 1.80 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dalton Red Wolves scores more

34%

level

24%

SC United Bantams scores more

42%

SC United Bantams at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SC United Bantams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff