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Dalian Kewei vs Beijing Guoan — FA Cup 2019

Dalian Kewei
Dalian Kewei
Preview
07:00
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
7/21/2026FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Dalian Football Youth Training Base Stadium
45%
Beijing Guoan
model favours
29%26%45%

Beijing Guoan have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dalian Kewei29%
×Draw26%
Beijing Guoan45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Kewei
1.15
Beijing Guoan
1.48

Beijing Guoan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dalian Kewei
1.67
Beijing Guoan
2.63

allows per match

Dalian Kewei
0.33
Beijing Guoan
0.63

finishing

Dalian Kewei+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Kewei ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dalian Kewei or draw
55%
Dalian Kewei or Beijing Guoan
74%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
71%

Winning margin

Dalian Kewei wins by 2+
12%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dalian Kewei 1+ goals
68%
Dalian Kewei 2+ goals
32%
Dalian Kewei 3+ goals
11%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
77%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
43%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dalian Kewei (draw refunded)
40%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Kewei at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 2.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Kewei attack 1.67 + Beijing Guoan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

Beijing Guoan attack 2.63 + Dalian Kewei defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dalian Kewei scores more
29%
level
26%
Beijing Guoan scores more
45%

Beijing Guoan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Beijing Guoan have scored in 10 games running
  • Beijing Guoan score first in only 27% of matches
  • Dalian Kewei score first in only 33% of matches
  • 67% of Dalian Kewei’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Dalian Kewei and Beijing Guoan have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kewei
DLWWD
Guoan
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dalian Kewei host Beijing Guoan

July 21, 2026: Dalian Kewei take on Beijing Guoan in FA Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dalian Kewei host Beijing Guoan at Dalian Football Youth Training Base Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.