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Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda — FA Cup 2019

Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
10/18/2021FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundDalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dalian Aerbin42%
×Draw27%
Tianjin Teda31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Aerbin
1.32
Tianjin Teda
1.10

Dalian Aerbin creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.20
Tianjin Teda
1.09

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.10
Tianjin Teda
1.45

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par
Tianjin Teda+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Tianjin Teda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw
69%
Dalian Aerbin or Tianjin Teda
73%
Draw or Tianjin Teda
58%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
19%
Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
73%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
38%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
15%
Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
67%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
30%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
57%
Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.20 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tianjin Teda attack 1.09 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more
42%
level
27%
Tianjin Teda scores more
31%

Dalian Aerbin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda

Dalian Aerbin beat Tianjin Teda 2-0 in FA Cup on October 18, 2021.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.