Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
9/21/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Dalian Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Dalian Aerbin51%
×Draw23%
Shenzhen Ruby FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Aerbin
1.80
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.21

Dalian Aerbin creates 49% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 67 away

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.35
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.40
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw
74%
Dalian Aerbin or Shenzhen Ruby FC
77%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
49%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
28%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
83%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
54%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
27%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
70%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
34%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
67%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.35 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.80

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more
51%
level
23%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
26%

Dalian Aerbin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC

Dalian Aerbin beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-0 in Super League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Center Stadium in Dalian.