Dalian Aerbin 1–0 Henan Jianye: Result & Stats

Dalian Aerbin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Henan Jianye

12/12/2021

Super League · Relegation Round - 1Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dalian Aerbin41%

×Draw26%

Henan Jianye33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian AerbinExpected goals in this matchHenan Jianye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.25

Dalian Aerbin

1.43

Henan Jianye

1.25

Dalian Aerbin creates 14% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 121 away

1.35

creates per match

1.09

1.40

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin

1.35

Henan Jianye

1.09

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin

1.40

Henan Jianye

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Henan Jianye+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Henan Jianye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw

67%

Dalian Aerbin or Henan Jianye

74%

Draw or Henan Jianye

59%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+

20%

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals

76%

Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals

42%

Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals

17%

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

71%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

36%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)

56%

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.51 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.35 + Henan Jianye defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Henan Jianye attack 1.09 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more

41%

level

26%

Henan Jianye scores more

33%

Dalian Aerbin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff