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Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai — Super League 2018

Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
4/22/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dalian Aerbin44%
×Draw24%
Changchun Yatai32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Aerbin
1.63
Changchun Yatai
1.35

Dalian Aerbin creates 21% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 88 away

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.35
Changchun Yatai
1.30

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.40
Changchun Yatai
1.90

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par
Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Changchun Yatai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw
68%
Dalian Aerbin or Changchun Yatai
76%
Draw or Changchun Yatai
56%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
23%
Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
80%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
48%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
22%
Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
74%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
39%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
58%
Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.35 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.63

Changchun Yatai attack 1.30 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more
44%
level
24%
Changchun Yatai scores more
32%

Dalian Aerbin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dalian Aerbin 1–2 Changchun Yatai

Changchun Yatai beat Dalian Aerbin 2-1 in Super League on April 22, 2021.

The match was played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium in Jiangyin.