Dalian Aerbin 0–2 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Dalian Aerbin

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Beijing Guoan

8/15/2019

Super League · Round 22Dalian Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dalian Aerbin35%

×Draw25%

Beijing Guoan40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian AerbinExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.50

Dalian Aerbin

1.39

Beijing Guoan

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 121 away

1.35

creates per match

1.59

1.40

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin

1.35

Beijing Guoan

1.59

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin

1.40

Beijing Guoan

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw

60%

Dalian Aerbin or Beijing Guoan

75%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

65%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+

16%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals

75%

Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals

40%

Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals

16%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

78%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

44%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)

47%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.35 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Beijing Guoan attack 1.59 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more

35%

level

25%

Beijing Guoan scores more

40%

Beijing Guoan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff