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Dakota vs La Fama — Division di Honor 2019

Dakota
Dakota
FT
4 – 1
La Fama
La Fama
4/5/2025Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Play-offs Kaya 6 - 6Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Dakota49%
×Draw21%
La Fama30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dakota
2.13
La Fama
1.62

Dakota creates 31% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 51 away

creates per match

Dakota
2.79
La Fama
1.98

allows per match

Dakota
1.26
La Fama
1.47

finishing

Dakota+0.00on par
La Fama+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dakota ↓

La Fama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Dakota or draw
70%
Dakota or La Fama
79%
Draw or La Fama
51%

Winning margin

Dakota wins by 2+
29%
La Fama wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dakota 1+ goals
88%
Dakota 2+ goals
63%
Dakota 3+ goals
35%
La Fama 1+ goals
80%
La Fama 2+ goals
48%
La Fama 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dakota (draw refunded)
63%
La Fama (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dakota at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.26 · 72 matches

La Fama away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dakota attack 2.79 + La Fama defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.13

La Fama attack 1.98 + Dakota defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dakota scores more
49%
level
21%
La Fama scores more
30%

Dakota at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dakota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Dakota 4–1 La Fama

Dakota beat La Fama 4-1 in Division di Honor on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.