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Dainava vs Šiauliai — 1 Lyga 2026

Dainava
Dainava
FT
2 – 1
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
O. Lukosiunas 90'
T. Vitukynas 85' (pen)
R. Gedminas 46'
10/2/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Promotion Round - 4Alytaus m. centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Dainava41%
×Draw23%
Šiauliai36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dainava
1.71
Šiauliai
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 35 away

creates per match

Dainava
2.24
Šiauliai
2.20

allows per match

Dainava
0.95
Šiauliai
1.17

finishing

Dainava+0.00on par
Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dainava ↓

Šiauliai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dainava or draw
64%
Dainava or Šiauliai
77%
Draw or Šiauliai
59%

Winning margin

Dainava wins by 2+
21%
Šiauliai wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dainava 1+ goals
82%
Dainava 2+ goals
51%
Dainava 3+ goals
24%
Šiauliai 1+ goals
79%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
47%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dainava (draw refunded)
54%
Šiauliai (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dainava at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.95 · 41 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dainava attack 2.24 + Šiauliai defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Šiauliai attack 2.20 + Dainava defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dainava scores more
41%
level
23%
Šiauliai scores more
36%

Dainava at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
R. Gedminas
85'
T. VitukynasPenalty
90'
O. Lukosiunas
90+3'
D. Jansonas
90+3'
D. Jansonas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dainava vs Šiauliai

Dainava beat Šiauliai 2-1 in 1 Lyga on October 2, 2020.

Goals: R. Gedminas (46'), T. Vitukynas (85' pen), O. Lukosiunas (90').

The match was played at Alytaus m. centrinis stadionas in Alytus.