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Dainava vs Kauno Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Dainava
Dainava
Preview
13:00
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
10/25/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 28
64%
Dainava
model favours
64%20%16%

Dainava are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Dainava64%
×Draw20%
Kauno Žalgiris II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dainava
2.20
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.00

Dainava creates 120% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 78 away

creates per match

Dainava
2.24
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.06

allows per match

Dainava
0.95
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.15

finishing

Dainava+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dainava ↓

Kauno Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dainava or draw
84%
Dainava or Kauno Žalgiris II
80%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II
36%

Winning margin

Dainava wins by 2+
41%
Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dainava 1+ goals
89%
Dainava 2+ goals
64%
Dainava 3+ goals
37%
Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
63%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
26%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dainava (draw refunded)
80%
Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dainava at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.95 · 41 matches

Kauno Žalgiris II away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.15 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dainava attack 2.24 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.20

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.06 + Dainava defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dainava scores more
64%
level
20%
Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
16%

Dainava at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dainava have scored in 11 games running
  • Kauno Žalgiris II score first in only 27% of matches
  • 50% of Dainava’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 67% of Dainava’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Kauno Žalgiris II win just 12% against the top half (vs 42% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Dainava
WDWWW
II
LLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dainava face Kauno Žalgiris II (1 Lyga)

1 Lyga returns with Dainava hosting Kauno Žalgiris II. Match starts October 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.