Daejeon Korail 3–1 Mokpo City: Result & Stats

Daejeon Korail

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mokpo City

11/3/2023

K3 League · Round 29Daejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Daejeon Korail46%

×Draw27%

Mokpo City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daejeon KorailExpected goals in this matchMokpo City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.01

Daejeon Korail

1.39

Mokpo City

1.01

Daejeon Korail creates 38% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 111 away

1.31

creates per match

1.13

0.90

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Daejeon Korail

1.31

Mokpo City

1.13

allows per match

Daejeon Korail

0.90

Mokpo City

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daejeon Korail+0.00on par

Mokpo City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Korail ↓

Mokpo City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Daejeon Korail or draw

73%

Daejeon Korail or Mokpo City

73%

Draw or Mokpo City

54%

Winning margin

Daejeon Korail wins by 2+

22%

Mokpo City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Daejeon Korail 1+ goals

75%

Daejeon Korail 2+ goals

40%

Daejeon Korail 3+ goals

16%

Mokpo City 1+ goals

64%

Mokpo City 2+ goals

27%

Mokpo City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Daejeon Korail (draw refunded)

63%

Mokpo City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Korail at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 106 matches

Mokpo City away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Korail attack 1.31 + Mokpo City defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mokpo City attack 1.13 + Daejeon Korail defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Daejeon Korail scores more

46%

level

27%

Mokpo City scores more

27%

Daejeon Korail at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Daejeon Korail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff