Daegu FC 1–0 Sangju Sangmu FC: Result & Stats

Daegu FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sangju Sangmu FC

Go Jae-Hyun 25'

3/2/2022

K League 1 · Round 3DGB Daegu Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Daegu FC38%

×Draw26%

Sangju Sangmu FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daegu FCExpected goals in this matchSangju Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.28

Daegu FC

1.34

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 101 away

1.33

creates per match

1.24

1.32

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Daegu FC

1.33

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.24

allows per match

Daegu FC

1.32

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Sangju Sangmu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw

65%

Daegu FC or Sangju Sangmu FC

74%

Draw or Sangju Sangmu FC

62%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+

17%

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals

74%

Daegu FC 2+ goals

39%

Daegu FC 3+ goals

15%

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals

72%

Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals

37%

Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)

52%

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.32 · 129 matches

Sangju Sangmu FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 1.33 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.24 + Daegu FC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Daegu FC scores more

38%

level

26%

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more

35%

Daegu FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Oh Seung-Hoon

Daegu FC · G

8.3

Match Events

25'

Go Jae-Hyun↳ Jeong Tae-Wook

46'

Myung Jun-Jae← Ji Eon-Hak

60'

Jin-su Seo

65'

Kim Ji-Hyun← Seo Jin-Su

66'

Jae-hyeon Ko

71'

Edgar Silva← Go Jae-Hyun

74'

Park Sang-Hyeok← Ko Seung-Beom

75'

Kwon Hyeok-Kyu← Jung Hyun-Cheol

85'

Jeong Chi-In← Kim Jin-Hyuk

89'

Kim Han-Gil← Myung Jun-Jae

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DaeguSangju

Overview

35%Possession65%

10Total Shots17

4Corners9

10Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots17

3On Target5

6Off Target6

1Blocked6

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box8

Passing

35%Possession65%

290Total Passes538

200Accurate Passes451

69%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1