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Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — K League 1 2026

Daegu FC
Daegu FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3/3/2024K League 1K League 1 · Round 1DGB Daegu Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Daegu FC39%
×Draw26%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daegu FC
1.35
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 145 home / 117 away

creates per match

Daegu FC
1.33
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.23

allows per match

Daegu FC
1.29
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.38

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw
65%
Daegu FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
74%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
61%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+
18%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals
74%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
39%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
15%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
72%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
36%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)
53%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 145 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 1.33 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Daegu FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Daegu FC scores more
39%
level
26%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
35%

Daegu FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Daegu FC 0–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Daegu FC 1-0 in K League 1 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at DGB Daegu Bank Park in Daegu.