Dadjè 1–1 Réal Sport: Result & Stats

Dadjè

FT

1 – 1

Réal Sport

5/8/2021

Championnat National · Relegation Round - 4Stade Omnisports de Djakotomey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Dadjè50%

×Draw29%

Réal Sport21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DadjèExpected goals in this matchRéal Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.71

Dadjè

1.27

Réal Sport

0.71

Dadjè creates 79% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 82 away

1.37

creates per match

0.46

0.96

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Dadjè

1.37

Réal Sport

0.46

allows per match

Dadjè

0.96

Réal Sport

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dadjè+0.00on par

Réal Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dadjè ↓

Réal Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dadjè or draw

79%

Dadjè or Réal Sport

71%

Draw or Réal Sport

50%

Winning margin

Dadjè wins by 2+

23%

Réal Sport wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dadjè 1+ goals

72%

Dadjè 2+ goals

36%

Dadjè 3+ goals

14%

Réal Sport 1+ goals

51%

Réal Sport 2+ goals

16%

Réal Sport 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dadjè (draw refunded)

71%

Réal Sport (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dadjè at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 108 matches

Réal Sport away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dadjè attack 1.37 + Réal Sport defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Réal Sport attack 0.46 + Dadjè defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dadjè scores more

50%

level

29%

Réal Sport scores more

21%

Dadjè at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dadjè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff