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Dacia-Buiucani vs Sheriff — Cupa 2020

Dacia-Buiucani
Dacia-Buiucani
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sheriff
Sheriffadvanced
3/4/2023CupaCupa · Quarter-finalsJoma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dacia-Buiucani22%
×Draw23%
Sheriff55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia-Buiucani
1.03
Sheriff
1.80

Sheriff creates 75% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Dacia-Buiucani
1.40
Sheriff
2.00

allows per match

Dacia-Buiucani
1.60
Sheriff
0.67

finishing

Dacia-Buiucani+0.00on par
Sheriff+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia-Buiucani ↓

Sheriff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dacia-Buiucani or draw
45%
Dacia-Buiucani or Sheriff
77%
Draw or Sheriff
78%

Winning margin

Dacia-Buiucani wins by 2+
8%
Sheriff wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Dacia-Buiucani 1+ goals
64%
Dacia-Buiucani 2+ goals
28%
Dacia-Buiucani 3+ goals
9%
Sheriff 1+ goals
83%
Sheriff 2+ goals
54%
Sheriff 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Dacia-Buiucani (draw refunded)
28%
Sheriff (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia-Buiucani at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Sheriff away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia-Buiucani attack 1.40 + Sheriff defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Sheriff attack 2.00 + Dacia-Buiucani defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dacia-Buiucani scores more
22%
level
23%
Sheriff scores more
55%

Sheriff at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sheriff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dacia-Buiucani vs Sheriff

Sheriff beat Dacia-Buiucani 3-0 in Cupa on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.