Da Nang 2–2 Quang Nam: Result & Stats | V.League 1

Da Nang

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Quang Nam

3/7/2019

V.League 1 · Round 3Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân (Đà Nẵng (Da Nang))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Da Nang44%

×Draw25%

Quang Nam31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Da NangExpected goals in this matchQuang Nam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.22

Da Nang

1.52

Quang Nam

1.22

Da Nang creates 25% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 49 away

1.26

creates per match

1.35

1.08

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Da Nang

1.26

Quang Nam

1.35

allows per match

Da Nang

1.08

Quang Nam

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Da Nang+0.00on par

Quang Nam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Da Nang ↓

Quang Nam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Da Nang or draw

69%

Da Nang or Quang Nam

75%

Draw or Quang Nam

56%

Winning margin

Da Nang wins by 2+

22%

Quang Nam wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Da Nang 1+ goals

78%

Da Nang 2+ goals

45%

Da Nang 3+ goals

20%

Quang Nam 1+ goals

70%

Quang Nam 2+ goals

34%

Quang Nam 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Da Nang (draw refunded)

59%

Quang Nam (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Da Nang at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.08 · 76 matches

Quang Nam away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Da Nang attack 1.26 + Quang Nam defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Quang Nam attack 1.35 + Da Nang defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Da Nang scores more

44%

level

25%

Quang Nam scores more

31%

Da Nang at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff