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D. Puerto Montt vs Deportes Valdivia — Primera B 2018

D. Puerto Montt
D. Puerto Montt
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
4/14/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 10Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue (Puerto Montt)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

D. Puerto Montt53%
×Draw24%
Deportes Valdivia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Puerto Montt
1.66
Deportes Valdivia
1.00

D. Puerto Montt creates 66% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 36 away

creates per match

D. Puerto Montt
1.25
Deportes Valdivia
1.06

allows per match

D. Puerto Montt
0.95
Deportes Valdivia
2.06

finishing

D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Puerto Montt ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

D. Puerto Montt or draw
77%
D. Puerto Montt or Deportes Valdivia
76%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
47%

Winning margin

D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+
28%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals
81%
D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals
49%
D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals
23%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
63%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
26%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)
70%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Puerto Montt at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.95 · 95 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.25 + Deportes Valdivia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.66

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.06 + D. Puerto Montt defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

D. Puerto Montt scores more
53%
level
24%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
23%

D. Puerto Montt at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "D. Puerto Montt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: D. Puerto Montt vs Deportes Valdivia

D. Puerto Montt and Deportes Valdivia drew 2-2 in Primera B on April 14, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue (Puerto Montt).