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D. Melipilla vs Deportes Copiapo — Primera B 2018

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
CANC
00:00
Deportes Copiapo
Deportes Copiapo
11/13/2019Primera BPrimera B · Round 27Estadio Municipal de La Pintana (Santiago de Chile)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

D. Melipilla43%
×Draw28%
Deportes Copiapo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.27
Deportes Copiapo
0.99

D. Melipilla creates 28% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 94 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.25
Deportes Copiapo
1.11

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.87
Deportes Copiapo
1.30

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Deportes Copiapo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Deportes Copiapo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
71%
D. Melipilla or Deportes Copiapo
72%
Draw or Deportes Copiapo
57%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
19%
Deportes Copiapo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
72%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
36%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
14%
Deportes Copiapo 1+ goals
63%
Deportes Copiapo 2+ goals
26%
Deportes Copiapo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
60%
Deportes Copiapo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.87 · 55 matches

Deportes Copiapo away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.25 + Deportes Copiapo defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportes Copiapo attack 1.11 + D. Melipilla defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
43%
level
28%
Deportes Copiapo scores more
29%

D. Melipilla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

D. Melipilla vs Deportes Copiapo — Match Preview

D. Melipilla face Deportes Copiapo on November 13, 2019 in this Primera B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

D. Melipilla host Deportes Copiapo at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana (Santiago de Chile).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.