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Cwmbran Celtic vs Caerau (Ely) — League #111 2026

Cwmbran Celtic
Cwmbran Celtic
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
A. McDowell 60'
A. Bonthron 36'
A. Larcombe 6'
J. Williams 77', 30'
10/21/2023League #111League #111 · South - 10Celtic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cwmbran Celtic47%
×Draw22%
Caerau (Ely)31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cwmbran Celtic
1.95
Caerau (Ely)
1.55

Cwmbran Celtic creates 26% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cwmbran Celtic
2.00
Caerau (Ely)
1.60

allows per match

Cwmbran Celtic
1.50
Caerau (Ely)
1.90

finishing

Cwmbran Celtic+0.00on par
Caerau (Ely)+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cwmbran Celtic ↓

Caerau (Ely) →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cwmbran Celtic or draw
69%
Cwmbran Celtic or Caerau (Ely)
78%
Draw or Caerau (Ely)
53%

Winning margin

Cwmbran Celtic wins by 2+
26%
Caerau (Ely) wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cwmbran Celtic 1+ goals
86%
Cwmbran Celtic 2+ goals
58%
Cwmbran Celtic 3+ goals
31%
Caerau (Ely) 1+ goals
79%
Caerau (Ely) 2+ goals
46%
Caerau (Ely) 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cwmbran Celtic (draw refunded)
60%
Caerau (Ely) (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cwmbran Celtic at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Caerau (Ely) away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cwmbran Celtic attack 2.00 + Caerau (Ely) defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.95

Caerau (Ely) attack 1.60 + Cwmbran Celtic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cwmbran Celtic scores more
47%
level
22%
Caerau (Ely) scores more
31%

Cwmbran Celtic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cwmbran Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
A. Larcombe
28'
B. L. Griffiths
30'
J. Williams
36'
A. Bonthron
60'
A. McDowell
77'
J. Williams

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cwmbran Celtic vs Caerau (Ely)

Cwmbran Celtic beat Caerau (Ely) 3-2 in League #111 on October 21, 2023.

Goals: A. Larcombe (6'), J. Williams (30', 77'), A. Bonthron (36'), A. McDowell (60').

The match was played at Celtic Park in Cwmbran, Monmouthshire.