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Cusco vs Deportivo Garcilaso — Primera División 2026

Cusco
Cusco
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
2/17/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Cusco48%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Garcilaso26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cusco
1.52
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.06

Cusco creates 43% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 61 away

creates per match

Cusco
1.72
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.11

allows per match

Cusco
1.02
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.31

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par
Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cusco or draw
74%
Cusco or Deportivo Garcilaso
74%
Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso
52%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals
78%
Cusco 2+ goals
45%
Cusco 3+ goals
20%
Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)
64%
Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.72 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.11 + Cusco defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cusco scores more
48%
level
26%
Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
26%

Cusco at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cusco 1 – 0 Deportivo Garcilaso

Cusco beat Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 in Primera División on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.