Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cusco vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

Cusco
Cusco
PST
20:00
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
8/23/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cusco57%
×Draw23%
Carlos Stein20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cusco
1.81
Carlos Stein
0.97

Cusco creates 87% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cusco
1.72
Carlos Stein
0.91

allows per match

Cusco
1.02
Carlos Stein
1.91

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cusco or draw
80%
Cusco or Carlos Stein
77%
Draw or Carlos Stein
43%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+
33%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals
84%
Cusco 2+ goals
54%
Cusco 3+ goals
27%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
62%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
25%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)
74%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.72 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.81

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Cusco defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cusco scores more
57%
level
23%
Carlos Stein scores more
20%

Cusco at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cusco host Carlos Stein

August 23, 2020: Cusco take on Carlos Stein in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cusco host Carlos Stein at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.