Curzon Ashton 1–1 Southport: Result & Stats

Curzon Ashton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Southport

A. Barton 65'

N. Watson 27'

12/26/2022

League #50 · North - 25Tameside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Curzon Ashton45%

×Draw26%

Southport29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Curzon AshtonExpected goals in this matchSouthport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.13

Curzon Ashton

1.49

Southport

1.13

Curzon Ashton creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 34 away

1.33

creates per match

1.15

1.11

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Curzon Ashton

1.33

Southport

1.15

allows per match

Curzon Ashton

1.11

Southport

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Curzon Ashton+0.00on par

Southport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curzon Ashton ↓

Southport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Curzon Ashton or draw

71%

Curzon Ashton or Southport

74%

Draw or Southport

55%

Winning margin

Curzon Ashton wins by 2+

22%

Southport wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Curzon Ashton 1+ goals

77%

Curzon Ashton 2+ goals

44%

Curzon Ashton 3+ goals

19%

Southport 1+ goals

68%

Southport 2+ goals

31%

Southport 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Curzon Ashton (draw refunded)

61%

Southport (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curzon Ashton at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Southport away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curzon Ashton attack 1.33 + Southport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Southport attack 1.15 + Curzon Ashton defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Curzon Ashton scores more

45%

level

26%

Southport scores more

29%

Curzon Ashton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Curzon Ashton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

55'

65'

68'

71'

76'

78'

R. Hall← B. Smailes-Brathwaite

Curzon

Southport

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Lakeland

55'▲T. Peers←▼C. Hobson

78'▲R. Hall←▼B. Smailes-Brathwaite

Curzon Ashton substitutes

PeersHallDimaioWaringStephenson

Manager: L. Watson

68'▲C. Doyle←▼N. Watson

71'▲C. Oliver←▼J. Hmami

76'▲C. Heath←▼D. Evans

Southport substitutes

DoyleOliverHeathCarberryMiles

League #50: Curzon Ashton 1–1 Southport

Curzon Ashton and Southport drew 1-1 in League #50 on December 26, 2022.

Goals: N. Watson (27'), A. Barton (65').

The match was played at Tameside Stadium in Ashton-under-Lyne, Lancashire.

Curzon Ashton vs Southport — League #50 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #50: Curzon Ashton 1–1 Southport