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Curridabat FC vs Puerto Golfito — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Curridabat FC
Curridabat FC
FT
3 – 0
Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
2/9/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 5Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge (San José)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Curridabat FC48%
×Draw25%
Puerto Golfito26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curridabat FC
1.56
Puerto Golfito
1.08

Curridabat FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 83 away

creates per match

Curridabat FC
1.10
Puerto Golfito
0.93

allows per match

Curridabat FC
1.23
Puerto Golfito
2.02

finishing

Curridabat FC+0.00on par
Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curridabat FC ↓

Puerto Golfito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Curridabat FC or draw
74%
Curridabat FC or Puerto Golfito
75%
Draw or Puerto Golfito
52%

Winning margin

Curridabat FC wins by 2+
25%
Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Curridabat FC 1+ goals
79%
Curridabat FC 2+ goals
46%
Curridabat FC 3+ goals
21%
Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
66%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
29%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Curridabat FC (draw refunded)
65%
Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curridabat FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.02 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curridabat FC attack 1.10 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.56

Puerto Golfito attack 0.93 + Curridabat FC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Curridabat FC scores more
48%
level
25%
Puerto Golfito scores more
26%

Curridabat FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Curridabat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Curridabat FC 3–0 Puerto Golfito

Curridabat FC beat Puerto Golfito 3-0 in Liga de Ascenso on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge (San José).