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Curridabat FC vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Curridabat FC
Curridabat FC
FT
0 – 2
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
3/2/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 9Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge (San José)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Curridabat FC47%
×Draw26%
AS Puma Generalena27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curridabat FC
1.50
AS Puma Generalena
1.06

Curridabat FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 73 away

creates per match

Curridabat FC
1.10
AS Puma Generalena
0.89

allows per match

Curridabat FC
1.23
AS Puma Generalena
1.90

finishing

Curridabat FC+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curridabat FC ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Curridabat FC or draw
73%
Curridabat FC or AS Puma Generalena
74%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
53%

Winning margin

Curridabat FC wins by 2+
24%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Curridabat FC 1+ goals
78%
Curridabat FC 2+ goals
44%
Curridabat FC 3+ goals
19%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
65%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
29%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Curridabat FC (draw refunded)
64%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curridabat FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.90 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curridabat FC attack 1.10 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.50

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.89 + Curridabat FC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Curridabat FC scores more
47%
level
26%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
27%

Curridabat FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Curridabat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Curridabat FC 0 – 2 AS Puma Generalena

AS Puma Generalena beat Curridabat FC 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge (San José).