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Curaçao vs Panama — Friendlies 2026

Curaçao
Curaçao
PST
23:00
Panama
Panama
3/25/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Philips Stadion (Eindhoven)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Curaçao60%
×Draw23%
Panama17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curaçao
1.73
Panama
0.78

Curaçao creates 122% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 30 away

creates per match

Curaçao
1.25
Panama
0.80

allows per match

Curaçao
0.75
Panama
2.20

finishing

Curaçao+0.00on par
Panama+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curaçao ↓

Panama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Curaçao or draw
83%
Curaçao or Panama
77%
Draw or Panama
40%

Winning margin

Curaçao wins by 2+
34%
Panama wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Curaçao 1+ goals
82%
Curaçao 2+ goals
52%
Curaçao 3+ goals
25%
Panama 1+ goals
54%
Panama 2+ goals
18%
Panama 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Curaçao (draw refunded)
78%
Panama (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curaçao at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Panama away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curaçao attack 1.25 + Panama defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.73

Panama attack 0.80 + Curaçao defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Curaçao scores more
60%
level
23%
Panama scores more
17%

Curaçao at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Curaçao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Curaçao host Panama

March 25, 2020: Curaçao take on Panama in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Curaçao host Panama at Philips Stadion (Eindhoven).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.