Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cumbayá vs El Nacional — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Cumbayá
Cumbayá
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Nacional
El Nacional
8/25/2021Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 29Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Cumbayá48%
×Draw28%
El Nacional25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbayá
1.37
El Nacional
0.90

Cumbayá creates 52% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cumbayá
1.30
El Nacional
0.93

allows per match

Cumbayá
0.86
El Nacional
1.44

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw
75%
Cumbayá or El Nacional
72%
Draw or El Nacional
52%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+
23%
El Nacional wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals
75%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
40%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
16%
El Nacional 1+ goals
59%
El Nacional 2+ goals
23%
El Nacional 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)
66%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.86 · 43 matches

El Nacional away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 1.30 + El Nacional defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37

El Nacional attack 0.93 + Cumbayá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cumbayá scores more
48%
level
28%
El Nacional scores more
25%

Cumbayá at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cumbayá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cumbayá 0 – 0 El Nacional

Cumbayá and El Nacional drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.