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Cumbayá vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Cumbayá
Cumbayá
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
F. Mera 84'
5/1/2022Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 11Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cumbayá43%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Cuenca28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cumbayá
1.24
Deportivo Cuenca
0.93

Cumbayá creates 33% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 131 away

creates per match

Cumbayá
0.98
Deportivo Cuenca
0.85

allows per match

Cumbayá
1.00
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw
72%
Cumbayá or Deportivo Cuenca
71%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
57%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals
71%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
35%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
24%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)
61%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 0.98 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.24

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + Cumbayá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cumbayá scores more
43%
level
29%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
28%

Cumbayá at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cumbayá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Marco Montaño
45'
Bryan Rivera
49'
Ronny Biojo
59'
J. Riofrío← D. Uquillas
61'
Janpol Morales
62'
V. Branda← J. Almeida
62'
J. Vernaza← M. Zambrano
67'
E. Hernández← L. Yepez
70'
F. Mera← J. Godoy
74'
John Mero
77'
Christian Cepeda
78'
B. Ramírez← L. Morales
84'
R. Guerrón← L. Colitto
84'
F. Mera↳ V. Branda
90'
Bryan Ramirez
90+6'
Hamilton Piedra

Shots

6Cumbayá

Statistics

CumbayáDeportivo
Overview
6Total Shots5
7Corners7
9Fouls18
Shots
6Total Shots5
3On Target3
3Off Target2
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls18
3Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Cumbayá vs Deportivo Cuenca

Deportivo Cuenca beat Cumbayá 1-0 in Liga Pro on May 1, 2022.

Goals: F. Mera (84').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.