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Cukaricki vs Proleter Novi SAD — Super Liga 2018

Cukaricki
Cukaricki
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
8/17/2019Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 5Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Cukaricki57%
×Draw24%
Proleter Novi SAD19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cukaricki
1.67
Proleter Novi SAD
0.85

Cukaricki creates 96% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 72 away

creates per match

Cukaricki
1.77
Proleter Novi SAD
0.81

allows per match

Cukaricki
0.89
Proleter Novi SAD
1.56

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par
Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw
81%
Cukaricki or Proleter Novi SAD
76%
Draw or Proleter Novi SAD
43%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+
31%
Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals
81%
Cukaricki 2+ goals
50%
Cukaricki 3+ goals
23%
Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
57%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
21%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)
75%
Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 146 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.77 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.67

Proleter Novi SAD attack 0.81 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cukaricki scores more
57%
level
24%
Proleter Novi SAD scores more
19%

Cukaricki at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Cukaricki 2–1 Proleter Novi SAD

Cukaricki beat Proleter Novi SAD 2-1 in Super Liga on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion na Banovom brdu in Beograd.