Cucuta 2–2 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Cucuta

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente Medellin

M. Duarte 90+5'

J. Agudelo 60' (pen)

G. Cano 85'

D. Herazo 7'

3/28/2019

Primera A · Apertura - 16Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cucuta33%

×Draw30%

Independiente Medellin37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.11

Cucuta

1.04

Independiente Medellin

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.11

creates per match

0.97

1.25

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Cucuta

1.11

Independiente Medellin

0.97

allows per match

Cucuta

1.25

Independiente Medellin

0.98

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

Cucuta+0.18scores more

Independiente Medellin+0.63scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

63%

Cucuta or Independiente Medellin

70%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

67%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

13%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

65%

Cucuta 2+ goals

28%

Cucuta 3+ goals

9%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

67%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

30%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

47%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 7 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.11 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Independiente Medellin attack 0.97 + Cucuta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cucuta scores more

33%

level

30%

Independiente Medellin scores more

37%

Independiente Medellin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

M. Duarte

Cucuta · D

7.7

Match Events

7'

34'

44'

45'

46'

51'

W. Arboleda← D. Herazo

55'

E. Valencia← C. Sinisterra

56'

J. Castro← H. Obando

59'

Diego Arias

60'

J. AgudeloPenalty

68'

A. Rodríguez← L. Castro

81'

L. Cabrera← L. Miranda

82'

David González

85'

G. Cano↳ A. Rodríguez

90'

John Hernandez

90+5'

M. Duarte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CucutaIndependiente

Overview

62%Possession38%

26Total Shots11

9Corners3

17Fouls17

Shots

26Total Shots11

5On Target4

16Off Target6

5Blocked1

12Inside Box7

14Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

385Total Passes247

312Accurate Passes144

81%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1