Cucuta 2–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Cucuta

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

America de Cali

J. Castro 80', 40'

5/30/2016

Primera B · Round 16Estadio General Santander (Cúcuta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Cucuta42%

×Draw28%

America de Cali30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.03

Cucuta

1.27

America de Cali

1.03

Cucuta creates 23% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 9 away

1.77

creates per match

1.33

0.73

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Cucuta

1.77

America de Cali

1.33

allows per match

Cucuta

0.73

America de Cali

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

70%

Cucuta or America de Cali

72%

Draw or America de Cali

58%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

19%

America de Cali wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

72%

Cucuta 2+ goals

36%

Cucuta 3+ goals

14%

America de Cali 1+ goals

64%

America de Cali 2+ goals

28%

America de Cali 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

58%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.77 + America de Cali defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.27

America de Cali attack 1.33 + Cucuta defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cucuta scores more

42%

level

28%

America de Cali scores more

30%

Cucuta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

J. Castro

42'

N. Vidal← Carlos Bejarano

46'

D. Basto← A. Hernández

54'

J. Hinestroza← Y. Cabrera

68'

J. Murillo← B. Lucumí

80'

J. Castro

90'

N. Palacios← J. Lloreda

Cucuta

America

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

68'▲J. Murillo←▼B. Lucumí

90'▲N. Palacios←▼J. Lloreda

Cucuta substitutes

MurilloPalacios

42'▲N. Vidal←▼Carlos Bejarano

46'▲D. Basto←▼A. Hernández

54'▲J. Hinestroza←▼Y. Cabrera

America de Cali substitutes

VidalBastoHinestroza