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Cuarte vs Illueca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Cuarte
Cuarte
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Illueca
Illueca
11/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 12Nuevo Estadio Municipal Cuarte de Huerva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cuarte50%
×Draw27%
Illueca23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuarte
1.43
Illueca
0.89

Cuarte creates 61% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 93 away

creates per match

Cuarte
1.44
Illueca
1.10

allows per match

Cuarte
0.67
Illueca
1.42

finishing

Cuarte+0.00on par
Illueca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuarte ↓

Illueca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cuarte or draw
77%
Cuarte or Illueca
73%
Draw or Illueca
50%

Winning margin

Cuarte wins by 2+
24%
Illueca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cuarte 1+ goals
76%
Cuarte 2+ goals
42%
Cuarte 3+ goals
17%
Illueca 1+ goals
59%
Illueca 2+ goals
22%
Illueca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cuarte (draw refunded)
68%
Illueca (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuarte at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.67 · 112 matches

Illueca away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.42 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuarte attack 1.44 + Illueca defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.43

Illueca attack 1.10 + Cuarte defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cuarte scores more
50%
level
27%
Illueca scores more
23%

Cuarte at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cuarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Cuarte 0–1 Illueca

Illueca beat Cuarte 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Municipal Cuarte de Huerva in Cuarte de Huerva.