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Cuando Cubango vs Santa Rita — Girabola 2019

Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
FT
1 – 1
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
8/25/2019GirabolaGirabola · Round 2Estádio Municipal de Menongue (Menongue)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cuando Cubango46%
×Draw33%
Santa Rita21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuando Cubango
1.07
Santa Rita
0.63

Cuando Cubango creates 70% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Cuando Cubango
0.82
Santa Rita
0.50

allows per match

Cuando Cubango
0.76
Santa Rita
1.32

finishing

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuando Cubango ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Cuando Cubango or draw
79%
Cuando Cubango or Santa Rita
67%
Draw or Santa Rita
54%

Winning margin

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
19%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
66%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
29%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
9%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
47%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
13%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
68%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuando Cubango at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuando Cubango attack 0.82 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Cuando Cubango defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cuando Cubango scores more
46%
level
33%
Santa Rita scores more
21%

Cuando Cubango at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cuando Cubango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Cuando Cubango 1–1 Santa Rita

Cuando Cubango and Santa Rita drew 1-1 in Girabola on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Menongue (Menongue).