CSKA Sofia vs Sturm Graz — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
CSKA Sofia50%
Sturm Graz24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
CSKA Sofia creates 58% more chances
Season form · 14 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CSKA Sofia ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches
Sturm Graz away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CSKA Sofia attack 1.79 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50
Sturm Graz attack 0.60 + CSKA Sofia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
CSKA Sofia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings found
CSKA Sofia host Sturm Graz on Thursday, 25 January 2024 at 00:00. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
CSKA Sofia face Sturm Graz (Friendlies Clubs)
Friendlies Clubs returns with CSKA Sofia hosting Sturm Graz. Match starts January 25, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
CSKA Sofia host Sturm Graz at TBC.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.