Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag — UEFA Europa League 2026

CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
Preview
18:00
Qarabag
Qarabag
7/30/2026UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundNational Stadium Vasil Levski
46%
CSKA Sofia
model favours
46%25%28%

CSKA Sofia score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

CSKA Sofia46%
×Draw25%
Qarabag28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia
1.53
Qarabag
1.14

CSKA Sofia creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia
1.67
Qarabag
1.27

allows per match

CSKA Sofia
1.00
Qarabag
1.40

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par
Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Qarabag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw
72%
CSKA Sofia or Qarabag
75%
Draw or Qarabag
54%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
23%
Qarabag wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
78%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
45%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
20%
Qarabag 1+ goals
68%
Qarabag 2+ goals
32%
Qarabag 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
62%
Qarabag (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Qarabag away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.67 + Qarabag defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Qarabag attack 1.27 + CSKA Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more
46%
level
25%
Qarabag scores more
28%

CSKA Sofia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • When Qarabag score first, they win 86% of the time
  • 47% of CSKA Sofia’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Qarabag matches are rarely goalless — only 3.2% end 0-0
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged just 0.7 goals
  • CSKA Sofia matches are rarely goalless — only 4.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sofia
DDWWW
Qarabag
DWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CSKA Sofia face Qarabag (UEFA Europa League)

UEFA Europa League returns with CSKA Sofia hosting Qarabag. Match starts July 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CSKA Sofia host Qarabag at National Stadium Vasil Levski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.