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CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets — First League 2026

CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
12/10/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Stadion Bâlgarska Armija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

CSKA Sofia38%
×Draw27%
Ludogorets35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia
1.30
Ludogorets
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 133 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia
1.78
Ludogorets
1.83

allows per match

CSKA Sofia
0.63
Ludogorets
0.83

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw
65%
CSKA Sofia or Ludogorets
73%
Draw or Ludogorets
62%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
17%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
73%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
37%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
14%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
71%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
35%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
52%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.63 · 139 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.78 + Ludogorets defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ludogorets attack 1.83 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more
38%
level
27%
Ludogorets scores more
35%

CSKA Sofia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: CSKA Sofia 0–1 Ludogorets

Ludogorets beat CSKA Sofia 1-0 in First League on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija in Sofia.