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CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv — First League 2026

CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
3/17/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

CSKA Sofia53%
×Draw24%
Botev Plovdiv23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia
1.73
Botev Plovdiv
1.07

CSKA Sofia creates 62% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia
1.51
Botev Plovdiv
1.25

allows per match

CSKA Sofia
0.90
Botev Plovdiv
1.94

finishing

CSKA Sofia-0.21scores less
Botev Plovdiv+0.35scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Botev Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw
77%
CSKA Sofia or Botev Plovdiv
76%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv
47%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
29%
Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
82%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
52%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
25%
Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
66%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
29%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
69%
Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.94 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.51 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.25 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more
53%
level
24%
Botev Plovdiv scores more
23%

CSKA Sofia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: CSKA Sofia 4–0 Botev Plovdiv

CSKA Sofia beat Botev Plovdiv 4-0 in First League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.