CSKA Sofia II vs Dobrudzha — Second League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 35+ matches
CSKA Sofia II53%
Dobrudzha21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
CSKA Sofia II creates 78% more chances
Season form · 35 home / 101 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CSKA Sofia II ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches
Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CSKA Sofia II attack 1.66 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53
Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
CSKA Sofia II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Tsarsko Selo
Montana
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Litex
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Strumska Slava
Lokomotiv Sofia
Pomorie
Chernomorets Balchik
Ludogorets II
Botev Galabovo
Kariana Erden
Pirin Blagoevgrad
NesebarDobrudzhaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
CSKA Sofia II host Dobrudzha on Saturday, 10 April 2027 at 15:00. The match is part of the Second League 2018/2019 season.
CSKA Sofia II face Dobrudzha (Second League)
Second League returns with CSKA Sofia II hosting Dobrudzha. Match starts April 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
CSKA Sofia II host Dobrudzha at Stadion Dragalevtsi.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.