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CSKA Pomir vs Khatlon — Vysshaya Liga 2025

CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
Preview
14:00
Khatlon
Khatlon
8/15/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 14
Big match
51%
CSKA Pomir
model favours
51%25%24%

Khatlon score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

CSKA Pomir51%
×Draw25%
Khatlon24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Pomir
1.59
Khatlon
1.02

CSKA Pomir creates 56% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 48 away

creates per match

CSKA Pomir
1.67
Khatlon
1.02

allows per match

CSKA Pomir
1.02
Khatlon
1.52

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par
Khatlon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Khatlon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw
76%
CSKA Pomir or Khatlon
75%
Draw or Khatlon
49%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
26%
Khatlon wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
80%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
47%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
21%
Khatlon 1+ goals
64%
Khatlon 2+ goals
27%
Khatlon 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
68%
Khatlon (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Khatlon away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 1.67 + Khatlon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.59

Khatlon attack 1.02 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more
51%
level
25%
Khatlon scores more
24%

CSKA Pomir at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Pomir
LLLWW
Khatlon
DLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CSKA Pomir vs Khatlon — Match Preview

CSKA Pomir face Khatlon on August 15, 2026 in this Vysshaya Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.