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CSKA Moskva W vs Ryazan W — Supreme Division Women 2020

CSKA Moskva W
CSKA Moskva W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ryazan W
Ryazan W
8/12/2023Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 16Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

CSKA Moskva W70%
×Draw19%
Ryazan W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moskva W
2.15
Ryazan W
0.71

CSKA Moskva W creates 203% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 77 away

creates per match

CSKA Moskva W
2.32
Ryazan W
0.88

allows per match

CSKA Moskva W
0.53
Ryazan W
1.99

finishing

CSKA Moskva W+0.00on par
Ryazan W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moskva W ↓

Ryazan W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CSKA Moskva W or draw
89%
CSKA Moskva W or Ryazan W
81%
Draw or Ryazan W
30%

Winning margin

CSKA Moskva W wins by 2+
46%
Ryazan W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

CSKA Moskva W 1+ goals
88%
CSKA Moskva W 2+ goals
63%
CSKA Moskva W 3+ goals
36%
Ryazan W 1+ goals
51%
Ryazan W 2+ goals
16%
Ryazan W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moskva W (draw refunded)
86%
Ryazan W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moskva W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.53 · 76 matches

Ryazan W away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moskva W attack 2.32 + Ryazan W defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.15

Ryazan W attack 0.88 + CSKA Moskva W defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

CSKA Moskva W scores more
70%
level
19%
Ryazan W scores more
11%

CSKA Moskva W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "CSKA Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supreme Division Women: CSKA Moskva W 2–1 Ryazan W

CSKA Moskva W beat Ryazan W 2-1 in Supreme Division Women on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Novye Khimki in Khimki.