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CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia — First League 2026

CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
3/9/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

CSKA 194836%
×Draw28%
CSKA Sofia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948
1.17
CSKA Sofia
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 133 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948
1.51
CSKA Sofia
1.32

allows per match

CSKA 1948
1.03
CSKA Sofia
0.83

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

CSKA Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw
64%
CSKA 1948 or CSKA Sofia
72%
Draw or CSKA Sofia
64%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
15%
CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals
69%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
33%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
11%
CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
69%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
33%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
50%
CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.03 · 104 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.51 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

CSKA Sofia attack 1.32 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more
36%
level
28%
CSKA Sofia scores more
36%

CSKA 1948 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia beat CSKA 1948 2-1 in First League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.