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CSKA 1948 vs Arda Kardzhali — First League 2018

CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
4/29/2024First LeagueFirst League · Conference League Play-off Group - 1Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

CSKA 194844%
×Draw28%
Arda Kardzhali28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948
1.34
Arda Kardzhali
1.01

CSKA 1948 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 120 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948
1.51
Arda Kardzhali
0.99

allows per match

CSKA 1948
1.03
Arda Kardzhali
1.17

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw
72%
CSKA 1948 or Arda Kardzhali
72%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
56%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
21%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals
74%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
39%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
15%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
64%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
27%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
61%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.03 · 104 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.51 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.34

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more
44%
level
28%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
28%

CSKA 1948 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA 1948 vs Arda Kardzhali

CSKA 1948 and Arda Kardzhali drew 1-1 in First League on April 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.