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Csikszereda vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2018

Csikszereda
Csikszereda
Preview
16:00
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
10/10/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 11Stadionul Municipal
37%
Csikszereda
model favours
37%27%36%

Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Csikszereda37%
×Draw27%
Universitatea Craiova36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csikszereda
1.24
Universitatea Craiova
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 155 away

creates per match

Csikszereda
1.35
Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

Csikszereda
1.05
Universitatea Craiova
1.12

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw
64%
Csikszereda or Universitatea Craiova
73%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
63%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+
16%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals
71%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
35%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
13%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
70%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
34%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)
51%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.35 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Csikszereda defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Csikszereda scores more
37%
level
27%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
36%

Csikszereda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Csikszereda score first in only 27% of matches
  • Csikszereda sit 13, Universitatea Craiova 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Csikszereda
LLWLW
Craiova
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Csikszereda face Universitatea Craiova (Liga I)

Liga I returns with Csikszereda hosting Universitatea Craiova. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Csikszereda host Universitatea Craiova at Stadionul Municipal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.