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Csikszereda vs Arges Pitesti — Liga II 2018

Csikszereda
Csikszereda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
2/26/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 16Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Csikszereda42%
×Draw29%
Arges Pitesti29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csikszereda
1.24
Arges Pitesti
0.99

Csikszereda creates 25% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 62 away

creates per match

Csikszereda
1.55
Arges Pitesti
1.03

allows per match

Csikszereda
0.96
Arges Pitesti
0.92

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par
Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

Arges Pitesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw
71%
Csikszereda or Arges Pitesti
71%
Draw or Arges Pitesti
58%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+
19%
Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals
71%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
35%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
13%
Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
63%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
26%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)
59%
Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.55 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.24

Arges Pitesti attack 1.03 + Csikszereda defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Csikszereda scores more
42%
level
29%
Arges Pitesti scores more
29%

Csikszereda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Csikszereda vs Arges Pitesti

Csikszereda beat Arges Pitesti 2-1 in Liga II on February 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Miercurea Ciuc.