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Csikszereda MC W vs SSU Poli Timişoara W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Csikszereda MC W
Csikszereda MC W
FT
3 – 3
SSU Poli Timişoara W
SSU Poli Timişoara W
11/4/2023Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 8Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Csikszereda MC W52%
×Draw19%
SSU Poli Timişoara W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csikszereda MC W
2.45
SSU Poli Timişoara W
1.79

Csikszereda MC W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 46 away

creates per match

Csikszereda MC W
3.22
SSU Poli Timişoara W
2.39

allows per match

Csikszereda MC W
1.18
SSU Poli Timişoara W
1.67

finishing

Csikszereda MC W+0.00on par
SSU Poli Timişoara W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda MC W ↓

SSU Poli Timişoara W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Csikszereda MC W or draw
72%
Csikszereda MC W or SSU Poli Timişoara W
81%
Draw or SSU Poli Timişoara W
48%

Winning margin

Csikszereda MC W wins by 2+
32%
SSU Poli Timişoara W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Csikszereda MC W 1+ goals
91%
Csikszereda MC W 2+ goals
70%
Csikszereda MC W 3+ goals
44%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 1+ goals
83%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 2+ goals
53%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda MC W (draw refunded)
65%
SSU Poli Timişoara W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda MC W at home — creates 3.22, concedes 1.18 · 50 matches

SSU Poli Timişoara W away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda MC W attack 3.22 + SSU Poli Timişoara W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.45

SSU Poli Timişoara W attack 2.39 + Csikszereda MC W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Csikszereda MC W scores more
52%
level
19%
SSU Poli Timişoara W scores more
28%

Csikszereda MC W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Csikszereda MC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Csikszereda MC W vs SSU Poli Timişoara W

Csikszereda MC W and SSU Poli Timişoara W drew 3-3 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Miercurea Ciuc.