CSF Bălți 0–1 Sheriff Tiraspol: Result & Stats

CSF Bălți

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sheriff Tiraspol

4/16/2025

Cupa · Quarter-finalsStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

CSF Bălți47%

×Draw23%

Sheriff Tiraspol31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSF BălțiExpected goals in this matchSheriff Tiraspol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.45

CSF Bălți

1.83

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.45

CSF Bălți creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

3.00

creates per match

2.00

0.90

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

CSF Bălți

3.00

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.00

allows per match

CSF Bălți

0.90

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSF Bălți+0.00on par

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSF Bălți ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

CSF Bălți or draw

69%

CSF Bălți or Sheriff Tiraspol

77%

Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol

53%

Winning margin

CSF Bălți wins by 2+

25%

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

CSF Bălți 1+ goals

84%

CSF Bălți 2+ goals

54%

CSF Bălți 3+ goals

28%

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

77%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

42%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)

60%

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSF Bălți at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSF Bălți attack 3.00 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.00 + CSF Bălți defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CSF Bălți scores more

47%

level

23%

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

31%

CSF Bălți at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CSF Bălți will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff